Just How Easy Is Predicting Trends On TikTok?

Is predicting TikTok trends truly possible? 

Brands, creators, and users alike are constantly stuck in a battle against the impossibly fast TikTok trend cycle. Week over week, trends arise seemingly overnight with no fore-warning. 

Take the recent “very demure, very mindful” trend. 

In the last 7 days, #demure has received 18 thousands posts on TikTok. The trend has 372 thousand posts, which, given that it only started to gain traction on the 11th of August this year, is astonishing. 

@crazyredcarpets

Breaking News: @Jools Lebron had officially made it to national TV 🤯 Congrats on all your success! TikTok changed her life #demure #mindful #cutesy #viral #breakingnews #latinos @RuPaul @Jimmy Kimmel Live @ABC

♬ original sound – crazyredcarpets

This data highlights the impressive speed at which a trend can arise on TikTok. The creator of the “demure” trend, Jools LeBron, has been consistently posting on TikTok since 2020. Whilst a few of her doll review videos reached some popularity, she never managed to make it off the ground. 

Until, she made a flippant joke about being #demure. 

Now, she has 1.9 million followers and brands are jumping at the chance to work with her. No one, not even LeBron herself, could have foreseen her new level of popularity. 

Which raises the question: can predicting TikTok trends actually work? Or, is the largely popular platform a completely random whirlwind of content?

HOW TO SUCCEED AT PREDICTING TRENDS ON TIKTOK

Many accounts and marketing agencies claim to have found the secret to TikTok trend prediction. They post beautifully created infographics with simple four step solutions, promising their audience results. 

Yet, do these tactics really work? Could they have predicted #demure? 

These tips come from the very same agencies who have sworn up and down that long form content on TikTok is dead; and yet, the “who the f*ck did I marry?” content extravaganza continues to draw in numbers. 

Ultimately, it is not as black and white as simply having the key to predicting TikTok trends

Predicting trends on TikTok comes down to three categories; statistics, word of mouth, and just by chance. 

Data and analytics

Analytics play a major role in predicting TikTok trends. 

By using third-party tools and general observation, one can get pretty good at following what is rising in popularity. Key metrics such as hashtags, likes, and comments, allow one to observe what TikTok users are enjoying and interacting with. 

For example, #demure steadily climbed in popularity for several days before hitting its ultimate virality peak. By constantly checking what hashtags are trending on TikTok, one can easily find out what topics are doing well with users. 

@tiktokcreativeexperts

Click the link in our bio to easily find your next content idea #tiktokcreativecenter #contentidea #tiktoktips #trending #contentcreator

♬ original sound – TikTok Creative Experts

Beyond this, the For You Page is an essential source of information for predicting TikTok trends. It may be tedious, but taking a leisurely scroll through your For You Page gives a wonderful survey of what content is trending. Take note of what sounds are appearing most frequently, check comment sections to see any phrases that are being used over and over again, and see which creators keep popping up. 

This is also an excellent way to gauge user generated content (UGC). UGC is an imperative variable in the equation of predicting TikTok trends. Tracking what users themselves are creating shows what is trending. To run with the #demure example, if 10 different users are all suddenly creating responsive content involving #demure, it is clear that this topic is beginning to trend. 

Analytics are a sure fire way to gain a top-level understanding of content that is performing well on TikTok. However, they are by far from the only factor that influences trends. 

Word of mouth 

The importance of word of mouth information when predicting TikTok trends cannot be overemphasized. 

The idea of “word of mouth” essentially boils down to the fact that if one creator says something is a trend, people will start to believe it is. This is especially true when it comes to beauty and fashion trends. 

Many popular fashion and beauty creators have the ability to start a trend simply by speaking it into existence. If a major name such as Rebeca Oksana posts a video stating that bloomers are the next big thing, then other accounts will be quick to follow. This is because she has built up a reputation as a trend setter on the app. 

@rebecaoksana

cool girl spring outfit inspo 🎀

♬ original sound – rebeca ☆

Outside of fashion and beauty, this idea of word of mouth trends still stands. If a large account such as Britney Broski uploads a video laughing at #demure and joining in on it, then her millions strong audience will be hooked in seconds; pushing the hashtag to virality overnight, even if prior her followers had no idea what #demure was. 

Given that these kinds of trends are generated simply through talking, they are far more hard to pin down. Yet, one can still succeed at predicting TikTok trends through the word of mouth method, it just takes time and dedication. 

@brittany_broski

#duet with @julienthequeen97

♬ original sound – Julien Boudreau

Concentrate on observing what major players are talking about. Their words have power, and will lead you to burgeoning trends. Moreover, keeping up to date with the conversation on TikTok is essential. Spend some time pursuing the discovery page, and taking note of what people are saying. 

Having your finger on the pulse of TikTok culture is paramount to predicting TikTok trends. Remember to follow the change makers, and you will be sure to succeed. 

Just by chance 

There is one major factor of predicting TikTok trends that we are still yet to cover. The unknown factor. 

This is the factor that keeps brands up at night. This is the factor that sends social media manager’s to an early, stress-induced grave. 

The unknown factor is the simple fact that sometimes things just go viral. That’s it. There is no rhyme nor reason, no simple explanation, no lead up. Sometimes, videos are just in the right place at the right time, and that is all there is to it. 

@joolieannie

#fyp #demure

♬ original sound – Jools Lebron

The unknown factor turns creators who have been persistent TikTok posters for 10 years into globally beloved accounts overnight. Accounts who have been dormant for years suddenly become the funniest thing on the internet. Videos of a guy making cucumber salad become the only recipe anyone wants to make. 

Clearly, this factor puts a bit of a speed bump in predicting TikTok trends. One cannot prepare for the unknown factor nor track its trajectory. One must simply be present. Spend time on TikTok, observe what people are doing and saying. Exist as a consumer, not a brand, and immerse yourself in the beautiful chaos that is happening all around you. 

That way, the second a surprise trend pops up, you are right there to catch it and react. 

BRANDS AND PREDICTING TRENDS ON TIKTOK 

For brands, predicting TikTok trends is often hailed as the most important tactic to succeed on social media. 

Staying on trend and relevant is essential to having a top tier social media presence. Consumers want to see content that is current and topical. They want to see brands debating whether they are “demure” or “brat”, and videos of employees trying to make cucumber salads in the office. 

When all is said and done, however, being on trend is not the only factor that comes into play when existing as a brand on social media. 

It is a major piece of the puzzle, of course, but it is not the be all and end all. Brand identity is. 

Brands must not lose sight of who they are in order to jump on the latest trend bandwagon. Staying true to your identity and ethos is far more important to consumers than making a video about brat summer.

As such, finding a middle-ground between predicting TikTok trends and creating original content is the key to running a successful social media account. A fantastic example of this is Marc Jacobs’ TikTok account. 

The brand has thrown away the shackles of its luxury label, and instead is opting for a social first, Gen Z focused marketing strategy on TikTok. To do this, they produce a range of content that taps into trends, whilst also hitting long standing culture points that their audience cares about. Most importantly, they never deviate from their brand identity. 

@marcjacobs

The Tote Bag, made from scratch by @Nara Smith

♬ original sound – marcjacobs

Recently, Marc Jacobs released a collaboration with Nara Smith. Smith is a major name on TikTok, with a substantial following. She was the perfect choice for Marc Jacobs as she fits their luxury demographic, and has a long standing reputation on the app. She is not a fleeting trend, but rather has proven time and time again that she will always have some level of relevance. 

As such,  Marc Jacobs was able to show their audience that they understand what is relevant, without hedging all their bets on a passing trend. 

All in all, predicting TikTok trends is no easy feat. Using the right combination of analytics, social listening, and understanding of how trends come about, is the key to having a firm grip on the TikTok trend cycle. 

Brands should always remember to champion their identity before any trend, and to trust that a genuine connection with their audience is far more important than proving how “demure” they are to their audience.

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@sociallypowerful